L. M. Lloyd

When the iPhone came out, there were a great many people (like every living soul in Hollywood) hoping it would "do for smartphones what the iPod did for digital audio players." Actually, even that is putting it mildly. There were a great number of companies who devoted a great amount of resources, literally betting the iPhone would become the dominant phone in the world, and radically changing their development efforts to put the iPhone at the top of their priority list. Websites changed their layout to be more iPhone friendly. Software developers scrapped plans they had for Windows Mobile or BlackBerry projects to focus on iPhone projects. Basically the enitre mobile content world stopped, and took Apple at their word that the iPhone was going to change everything. To this day, there are many who still jump through all sorts of mental gymnastics to maintain that it is far and away the most important mobile platform ever to be seen. I hate to break it to you, but it just isn't the case, and it is time to accept that and move on.

Now, I have had my fair share of criticisms of Apple and its fans, which is why I have a whole section of my sight just for that purpose. However, as I have detailed before, my main complaint isn't really with Apple, nor their products, nor their fans, but the blatant dishonesty and illogic that is the central pillar of the Apple myth. The iPhone hype is just another example of this. In this particular instance the most offensive deceit is the redefinition of success. When the iPhone was launched, everyone from excited bloggers to serious financial analysts predicted that every phone company on Earth was now in trouble, because the iPhone was going to completely change everything, and Apple was going to dominate the phone market, like they dominate the dedicated MP3 player market. Not only has that not happened, but I would maintain that all things considered, the iPhone is a fabulous flop.

First, let's look at some facts and figures. Gartner recently released their figures for the last quarter and 2008 in general. Now there is a lot of data there, but the upshot is the table to the right. As you can see, the iPhone is neck and neck with Linux at 8.2% of the market. That places it behind the much maligned Windows Mobile OS, behind the boring and often ignored BlackBerry OS, and far behind Nokia's world dominating Symbian OS. Kepp in mind these figures include both original iPhone sales, and the launch of the 3G iPhone worldwide. What is worse, is that all indication are that the 3G iPhone may have peaked already, and is now in decline. It is certainly not the picture of a runaway hit that is changing the face of the entire industry. Also remember, these are only smartphone numbers, not general phone market numbers, where Nokia, LG, Samsung and even Motorola positively dwarf these numbers, which only comprise about 12% of the total phone market. That mean that two versions in, the iPhone has still yet to reach the paltry, and promised, 1% of the total phone market Steve Jobs claimed was his modest aim for the first iPhone. They are very close, at .972%, but then getting that number required a whole second product launch, dramatically expanding the markets the phone is available in, dumping their carrier revenue sharing model, and multiple price decreases and subsidies. Not exactly the unstoppable force your average blogger was predicting the day they debuted the original iPhone.